One in the Hand.
You can't print oil.
Hello,
I hope you are having a great week!
A barrel of oil sitting in a tanker off the Strait of Hormuz is worth more right now than the dollars promised to buy it. The world is about to learn that lesson the hard way. We are witnessing events where the world won’t be the same after.
In the name of cheapness efficiency we concentrated 25% of the world's oil through one chokepoint and 60% of copper refining in one country. That's not a supply chain. That's a single point of failure, from gas prices to the AI buildout.
Commodities are cheaper relative to stocks than at almost any point in modern history. It’s been a buying opportunity, but also a warning. We are witnessing the repricing of commodities when the trade routes that make cheap commodities possible stop working.
The Iran war isn't creating the systemic problem, it's revealing it. This is just the match hitting the gasoline. If someone handed Trump a playbook for crushing the dollar as a reserve asset, he's following it perfectly.
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Have a great rest of the week!
Casey Donaldson